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'Low cost' could reach 48% share of short-haul flights by 2030
Low-cost carriers are set to capture a 48% share of short-haul flights by 2030, with much of this growth occurring in Europe and Asia, according to an analysis by Bain & Company.
© Daily Mail
Economia Estudo
In a statement in which it gave an account of its forecasts at the beginning of this year, the consultancy said that 'low cost' airlines, which recorded "a slightly better performance than the major carriers during the covid-19 pandemic, continue to increase their market share".
"We forecast that these low-cost companies will reach a market share of 48% in short-haul flights by 2030, up from 36% in 2015 and 40% in 2019", it highlighted, indicating that "much of this expansion will happen in Europe and Asia, particularly in China and India".
According to the consultancy, the "demand for air travel continues on track to exceed the 2019 total this year, as measured by passenger revenue per kilometre", with the "outlook for 2030 remaining largely unchanged from the previous quarter".
However, it warned, "several factors have contributed to significant changes in the forecasts for specific regions and countries".
Thus, "the weaker-than-expected performance in the previous quarter and a decline in macroeconomic forecasts have reduced the demand outlook through 2030 for intraregional travel in North America by more than two percentage points (p.p.)".
However, "the outlook for Europe's intraregional demand has increased by more than five p.p., equivalent to $5 billion [€4.6 billion] in revenue", it highlighted.
For the consultancy, "the impact of decarbonisation initiatives is also notable", predicting that "the growth of intra-European travel from the Nordic countries between 2019 and 2030 will slow considerably due to the increased costs associated with these countries' commitments to sustainable aviation fuels".
In its analysis, Bain & Company says that Sweden "could even see a decline in its total annual passenger volume".
On the other hand, the consultancy continues "to anticipate significant growth in intraregional demand in Asia, a 59% increase between 2019 and 2030".
Read Also: Cabo Verde intends to receive 'low cost' flights via Portugal (Portuguese version)
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