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Moody's changes Brazil's outlook from stable to positive
The financial rating agency Moody's today maintained Brazil's Ba2 rating, but changed the outlook from stable to positive, due to the solid growth of the economy and the gradual improvement of the fiscal situation.
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In a statement, Moody's explained that stronger growth, combined with continued, albeit gradual, progress on fiscal consolidation, could stabilize Brazil's debt burden.
While noting that there are risks to fiscal consolidation, the agency said that Brazil has a diversified economy and that there are "institutional buffers that reduce uncertainty about the future direction of policy" that mitigate those risks.
Moody's expects Brazil's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to average around 2% in 2024-25.
The Ba2 rating, Moody's said, reflects Brazil's still relatively weak fiscal strength, given spending rigidities, a high debt burden and limited capacity to reduce it.
However, the agency noted that fiscal reforms introduced last year, which cap real primary spending growth at 70% of real revenue growth from the previous year, could contribute to gradual fiscal consolidation.
The agency said it expects Brazil's primary and nominal budget deficits to narrow in 2024-25, helped by tax collection measures.
Brazil's Finance Minister Fernando Haddad highlighted that the change in outlook is the result of the joint work of the three branches of government, "which put the interests of the country above their differences".
"Even with the momentary deterioration of the global economy, Brazil is moving forward and recovering its economic, social and environmental credibility. We still have a lot to do," Haddad said, in a message on the social network X.
Echoing Haddad's optimism, and on the same social network, Brazilian President Lula da Silva also left a message: "The Brazil that we are building has once again become respected in the world and has regained economic and environmental credibility. This is good for everyone".
Read Also: Reserva Federal Americana mantém taxas de referência inalteradas (Portuguese version)
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