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Inflation accounts for "more than half" of debt ratio reduction
The dynamic effect associated with inflation explained "more than half" of the reduction in the debt ratio in 2023, which stood at 99.1% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the lowest value since 2010, according to a report by the CFP.
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Economia Em 2023
According to the report "Budget Evolution of Public Administration in 2023", released today by the Public Finance Council (CFP), "the dynamic effect (-7.6 percentage points of GDP), influenced mainly by the effect of prices due to inflation, explained more than half of the reduction in the debt ratio, accompanied on a smaller scale by the favorable effect of the primary balance (-3.4 percentage points) and by the deficit-debt adjustment (-2.3 percentage points)".
Within the scope of financing, the CFP notes that "only households strengthened their position in nominal terms, representing 17% of the total 'stock' of Portuguese public debt", following the greater volume of net subscriptions of Savings Certificates.
As a result, the debt held by the resident sector increased from 55% to 58% of the total public debt, with the Central Bank, which is included in this resident sector, continuing to be the creditor with the greatest representation (26.1% of the total).
With regard to contingent liabilities -- which, although they do not constitute debt, may, if they reach a high level, indicate a high level of budgetary risk -- the CFP details that, in consolidated terms, the guarantees granted by the Public Administration (PA) sector fell from 4.5% of GDP in 2022 to 4.1% in 2023 (a decrease of 371 million euros, to 10,969 million).
"More than three quarters of these guarantees were provided to entities of the PA themselves (3.1% of GDP), the remainder being related to guarantees provided to public entities and other entities outside the budgetary perimeter", it specifies.
The PA's liabilities associated with guarantees granted to cover credit lines created in the context of covid-19 registered an annual decrease of 2,036 million euros to a value of 3,478 million in guarantees in force at the end of 2023, following the progressive closure of these lines.
Read Also: Taxes responsible for "more than half" of the increase in public revenue (Portuguese version)
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