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IEA cuts global oil demand growth forecast
The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised down today the increase in global oil demand, due mainly to the net reduction in demand in Europe.
© Reuters
Economia Petróleo
The new forecasts, included in the monthly oil market report published today, set an increase in global demand of 1.1 million barrels per day in 2024, 140,000 less than estimated a month ago, to 103.2 million.
For 2025, the new forecast points to a slightly higher growth, of 1.2 million barrels per day, to 104.5 million barrels per day.
The report confirms that, once again, the increase in oil demand is concentrated in emerging countries, especially in China.
On the other hand, demand in OECD countries will decrease by 137,000 barrels in 2024, mainly due to a drop of 140,000 barrels in Europe.
The document highlights the drop in diesel consumption in Europe, which will be 9.3% lower in 2024 compared to 2019 levels, due to lower industrial activity, the drop in car sales with this engine and the mild temperatures of last winter.
The supply of crude oil is expected to reach a record 102.7 million barrels per day this year, with the trend for the increase to come mainly from non-member or allied countries of the OECD (such as the US, Canada and Brazil), in the face of the freezing of production by the cartel members.
The production of crude oil from OPEC and its 10 allies (OPEC+) decreased by 90,000 barrels in April, to 41.43 million barrels per day, mainly due to the fact that Russia has started to apply the extraction cuts to which it had committed (-150,000 barrels per day in April, to 9.3 million).
Regarding prices, Brent rose by 1 dollar per barrel in April, to 88 dollars, which represents the fourth consecutive month of increase, due to the continuation of tension in the Middle East.
In addition, the Houthis of Yemen extended their attacks on merchant ships from the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, and Ukraine launched a series of attacks on Russian oil facilities.
However, oil prices moderated at the end of April, reaching 93 dollars per barrel, after it was realized that there would be no escalation in the confrontation between Iran and Israel.
This trend continued in the first days of May, when the price fell by more than 4 dollars per barrel, also due to doubts about the evolution of the global economy.
Read Also: Brent quotation for delivery in July drops 1.18% to 82.38 dollars (Portuguese version)
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