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"There is an expectation that, in June, we will have a lower interest rate"
Paulo Macedo believes that the ECB interest rates will fall in June, but acknowledges that the future is still "uncertain".
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Economia Paulo Macedo
The chairman of the Caixa Geral de Depósitos (CGD) Executive Committee, Paulo Macedo, expressed his expectation that the European Central Bank (ECB) could lower interest rates as early as June, admitting that this "trend" should continue throughout the year, but warning that this is still an "uncertain" future.
"I think that, according to the information that has been released, I think that there is an expectation, which could materialize, of having a drop in the interest rate in June", Paulo Macedo began by saying, in an interview with CNN Portugal, broadcast this Monday.
"The governor of Banco de Portugal has also issued this opinion and it also seems to me that it is justified in view of the known inflation figures and, on the other hand, because of something that we all know is very important, which are the expectations given to the market and to investors", he added, mentioning that "more confusion would be created if this drop did not take place".
The chairman of the CGD Executive Committee admitted that another "more doubtful" and "uncertain" thing are the "other movements that will happen during the year", but he said he believes that the "trend" will be downwards.
"I believe that the trend will be this way, also because inflation is going in this direction. Therefore, unless there is an even more extraordinary event than those that have happened, this will be the case and it is perfectly justified because inflation in Europe is falling and the figures are going in this direction", he pointed out, also emphasizing that "Europe needs to invest and lower interest rates".
Paulo Macedo acknowledged that this drop in interest rates will affect the profitability of bank capital, but he warned: "It will affect it, there will certainly be less income, but I also remember that banks and namely CGD, when interest rates were negative, also had positive results".
"Income will be lower and this will be felt gradually", he admitted, reinforcing the importance of "rigorous cost management".
It is worth recalling that at the monetary policy meeting of 10 and 11 April, the ECB's board decided to keep interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, but began to prepare the ground for a possible drop in June if inflation continues its downward trend.
Read Also: Miranda Sarmento advocates a greater reduction in IRS rates in the 6th bracket (Portuguese version)
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