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CIP/ISEG maintains forecast for GDP growth in 2024
The CIP/ISEG Barometer acknowledged today that the 1.4% growth of the GDP until March was slightly below the forecast, but maintained the expectation that the economy will grow between 1.5% and 2.1% of the GDP in 2024.
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Economia PIB
The value advanced by the National Institute of Statistics (INE) for the homologous growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter (1.4%) was slightly below expectations, taking into account the evolution of the indicators analyzed, acknowledged the barometer of the Portuguese Business Confederation (CIP) and the Higher Institute of Economics and Management (ISEG), released today.
"Even so, for the whole of 2024, the expectation remains that the growth of the Portuguese economy will be in the range of 1.5% to 2.1% of GDP, mainly due to domestic demand, with special emphasis on the contribution of private consumption", it pointed out, emphasizing that the evolution of investment is already more uncertain.
The evolution of 1.5% to 2.1% of GDP forecast for this year presupposes that the growth recorded at the end of 2023, at a time when the risk of economic recession was on the table, "gave breath to the first months of the year, but this momentum does not seem, at least for now, sustainable", stressed CIP/ISEG.
For the second quarter of this year, the data is still scarce, but, according to the barometer, "it does not compromise the positive trend that began to be seen in the last quarter of last year and that positively influenced the start of the year".
According to the analysis, the most favorable signs come from the consumer confidence indicator and also from the increases registered in April in automobile production and electricity.
For the general director of CIP, Rafael Alves Rocha, the reduction of IRS, IRC, the decision on the location of the airport and the negotiations to end the high conflict in public administration "are going in the right direction", but "it is essential to improve the context in which companies work in order to increase private investment, hostage to the climate of uncertainty".
Read Also: CIP/ISEG barometer estimates growth of 1.7% to 2.1% of GDP (Portuguese version)
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