Meteorologia

  • 16 SEPTEMBER 2024
Tempo
27º
MIN 21º MÁX 36º

IMF raises China's economic growth forecast to 5% from 4.6%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) today raised its forecast for China's economic growth in 2024 from 4.6% to 5%, the target set by the Chinese government in March.

IMF raises China's economic growth forecast to 5% from 4.6%
Notícias ao Minuto

06:12 - 29/05/24 por Lusa

Economia FMI

"China's economic growth is expected to remain robust at 5% in 2024 and moderate to 4.5% in 2025," the IMF said in a statement released after a 12-day visit to China by a team from the multilateral lender.

The IMF previously projected growth of 4.6% this year. The upward revision to the forecast is "driven by stronger-than-expected first-quarter GDP [gross domestic product] data and recent policy measures," the fund added.

China's economy expanded 5.3% in the first quarter of 2024, boosted by government stimulus and recovering demand.

China announced new measures to revive its property sector on May 17, a day after the IMF team began its visit, after data showed home prices had fallen by nearly 10% since the start of the year.

Authorities reduced down-payment requirements for mortgages and minimum interest-rate levels for first- and second-time homebuyers, and urged local governments to buy unsold homes and undeveloped land from developers.

Several cities, including the financial hub of Shanghai, have also lifted restrictions on property transactions, which plunged 24.3% in 2022 and another 8.5% in 2023, measured by floor area.

The IMF on Thursday welcomed the steps taken by China, saying that "the ongoing correction in the real estate market, needed to steer the sector toward a more sustainable path, is expected to continue."

However, "a more comprehensive set of measures would facilitate an efficient and less costly transition, while guarding against downside risks," the institution noted.

Over the medium term, "growth is projected to moderate to 3.3% due to population aging and slowing productivity gains," Gita Gopinath, the IMF's deputy managing director, was quoted as saying in the statement.

According to official data, China has about 280 million people aged 60 or over, or 19.8% of the total population. By 2035, the number of elderly people is projected to exceed 400 million, or more than 30% of the population.

The IMF official also highlighted "significant fiscal challenges, especially for local governments" faced by the country, adding that "fiscal consolidation is needed over the medium term."

Ratings agency Moody's downgraded China's debt outlook to "negative" from "stable" in December, citing "rising evidence of financial support from the government and the public sector to regional governments and distressed state-owned enterprises."

Read Also: Tokyo Stock Exchange opens with a 0.06% gain (Portuguese version)

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