For Floris Biskamp, a specialist in right-wing populist politics at the University of Tübingen, the process, which takes place less than two months before the European elections on June 9, is "ambiguous" for the AfD. "It should be noted that being classified as extremist by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz) would probably not affect their electoral results very much anymore. Those who continue to vote AfD know how the 'mainstream' sees them and no longer care much because they distrust the institutions," he said in statements to Lusa.

The case dates back to 2021, when the BfV changed its classification of the AfD from "case of interest" to "suspected case" of extremism. In practice, the domestic intelligence service will now monitor the party closely, and may recruit members to be confidential informants or "persons of trust".

The party was represented at the April 11 hearing by its top candidate for the European elections, Maximillian Krah. After new evidence was presented by the AfD, the process is not expected to end before the European Parliament elections.

"If the court rules against the AfD, this could cause problems for the party and its members, who will then be subject to observation by the secret services. However, in the very short term, the trial is publicity and free airtime. By sending its top candidate to the trial, the AfD is trying to take advantage of this possibility," said Floris Biskamp.

Jürgen Falter, a political scientist at the University of Mainz who researches political extremism and xenophobia, sees it as "very unlikely" that the proceedings at the Higher Administrative Court of Münster will "significantly affect" the AfD's chances in the European elections.

"The public is too little interested in the process itself for that to happen. However, if the AfD's request is rejected and the party is rightly allowed to be monitored by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution as a suspected extremist party, this will tend to deter undecided voters from voting for the AfD," he said in statements to Lusa.

Political scientist Marcel Lewandowsky, who recently published a book on populism, believes that most AfD voters are loyal. However, he admits that the process could affect voters who are still unsure of their decision.

"But these are fewer in number," he stressed to Lusa.

The regional intelligence services of the states of Thuringia and Saxony, which will vote for their parliaments on 1 September, and Upper Saxony, already classify the local AfD headquarters as "proven right-wing extremists".

According to the latest polls, the AfD is in second place in terms of votes. If the European elections were held today, the Alternative for Germany would get 17.4% of the vote, behind the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in coalition with its sister party in Bavaria (CSU), which would get 29.3%, and ahead of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's party, the SPD, with 16.2%.

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