At stake are local authorities of varying sizes (councils, metropolitan districts and unitary authorities), responsible for services such as bin collections, parks, planning, road maintenance and schools.

Voters will also elect mayors in cities and regions including London, Manchester, Liverpool, the West Midlands, West Yorkshire and the Tees Valley, as well as 39 police and crime commissioners in England and Wales. 

Tony Travers, a professor at the London School of Economics (LSE), said the Conservative party, in power for the last 14 years, faces an uphill struggle given its current unpopularity in the polls. 

A poll of polls compiled by the website Politico puts the Conservatives on 22%, half the 44% of the main opposition Labour party. 

Travers, an expert in local government, suggested losing up to 500 seats, which would equate to a 25% share of the vote nationally, would be a “respectable” result for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s party, but anything worse would be poor. 

“To lose 450 seats or fewer would be seen as a success. It’s a bit odd to lose seats and be a success, but that’s how it will be judged,” he said. 

The reason for such low expectations is the lack of public trust in Sunak, who has failed to quell anger over the “partygate” scandal that took place under Boris Johnson and the economic turmoil caused by Liz Truss’s short-lived premiership. 

“He is still suffering from that and whatever he does in terms of policy positions, most voters have made up their mind that this is not a competent government,” said Sarah Hobolt, another academic at the LSE.

For the opposition parties, the stakes are different as they will be competing to take seats from the Tories. 

Labour, with a large lead in the polls, will be looking to gain more than 400 seats, but would still see a gain of 350 as acceptable, Travers suggested. 

Anything less than 300, he added, could indicate that voters are not fully convinced by Labour leader Keir Starmer. 

Analysts caution that local elections are not a reliable guide to national opinion, but they can provide some clues about voting intentions, particularly at a regional level.

Hobolt said: “These local elections are very much being fought through the prism of the next general election, which is due in the second half of 2024, and are effectively being fought as a campaign for that election.” 

There has been speculation in the British press that a poor result could prompt Tory MPs to try to oust Sunak, or that the prime minister could call an early general election himself.

However, the lack of an obvious consensus candidate makes a fresh Tory leadership contest unlikely. 

The next UK general election is due to be held by 28 January, but Travers suggested it was more likely to take place in late October or November, after Sunak has been in office for two years.  

Read Also: Reino Unido deportou primeiro requerente de asilo para o Ruanda (Portuguese version)