The Reform Party replaced the Brexit Party after the UK completed its exit from the European Union (EU) in 2021, and so far its impact at the ballot box has been marginal, winning only a handful of local council seats.

But the party, even without Nigel Farage at the helm, has been gaining momentum in recent months and managed to gain a Member of Parliament in the House of Commons after former Conservative deputy chairman Lee Anderson defected.

Support for the Reform Party has doubled in the past year as it has ramped up its criticism of the government on issues such as tax and immigration, rising to third place nationally.

As well as advocating tax cuts and tighter immigration controls, it opposes current targets to reduce pollution to combat climate change.

According to poll aggregator Politico, the Reformers are on 13%, more than half the 22% recorded by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives and ahead of the Liberal Democrats on 9% and the Greens on 6%.

Analysts predict that Reform could eat into the Conservative vote in some areas and is even targeting the parliamentary constituency of Blackpool South, in northern England, where voters are more Eurosceptic and anti-immigration.

While the Brexit Party chose not to run candidates against the Conservatives in 2019, this year Reform leader Richard Tice has said that the party’s goal at the next general election is to “crush” the Tories and realign British politics.

Sarah Hobolt, a professor of politics at the London School of Economics (LSE), told Lusa that more than the local elections, attention will be on Reform’s performance in the Blackpool South by-election.

The contest was triggered by the resignation of Conservative MP Scott Benton after he breached lobbying rules.

A Reform victory would be a “big deal” because the party still has quite low public recognition, and might even persuade Nigel Farage to return to frontline politics, Hobolt said, tongue-in-cheek.

“Blackpool is one of the most deprived towns in the UK. It’s a place that voted heavily for Brexit and Reform should do reasonably well there. The question is whether Reform will take votes from the Conservatives or from Labour”, explained Tony Travers, another LSE academic.

Travers said that in some polls in the north and Midlands of England, the Reform Party is ahead of the Conservatives among older male voters.

Both analysts consider that the favourite in Blackpool South is the Labour Party, given its large lead in the polls, and that it would be a surprise if Reform won or even came second.

“If Reform were to win, that would be a galvanising moment in British politics. I think it would be quite a shock because it would suggest the possibility of a breakthrough, creating another headache for the Conservatives”, warned Travers.

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