Catalonia, a region with over 7.7 million inhabitants, has had governments led by nationalist and separatist parties for 14 consecutive years and experienced an attempted self-determination that culminated in a unilateral declaration of independence in 2017. This was followed by the suspension of autonomy and the arrest or flight abroad of separatist leaders.

Here are some key points about these elections:

Polls

The latest polls are from last Monday - Spanish law does not allow them in the five days prior to the elections - and all gave a clear victory to the Socialist Party (PSC), but far from an absolute majority, which in the Catalan parliament is at least 68 deputies.

In second place was Together for Catalonia (JxCat, centre-right independents), of the former autonomous president Carles Puigdemont, who has been living in Belgium since 2017 to escape Spanish justice and campaigned for these elections from the south of France.

Both Puigdemont and the socialist candidate, Salvador Illa, gained ground in recent weeks, to the detriment of the current regional president, Pere Aragonès, of the also-separatist Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), who appears in the most recent studies in third place.

According to the polls, this year, for the first time in more than a decade, there is no guarantee of an absolute separatist majority in the Catalan parliament and, therefore, of the re-edition of the separatist "contraptions" that have been formed since 2017.

The scenarios are even more uncertain because of the almost 40% of undecided voters who appeared in one of the polls.

Post-election scenarios

The socialist Salvador Illa admitted during the campaign an agreement with ERC, but said that he will only refuse to talk to the extreme right. He ended the campaign by calling for a broad victory that would allow him to govern.

Puigdemont called for unity and pro-independence mobilization and guaranteed that he will never make Illa president of the Generalitat.

Aragonès, president of the Generalitat since 2020, has neither committed to nor rejected any scenario, including that of no alliances with any party, which would open the door to a political blockade and the repetition of the elections in the autumn.

Impact on the governability of Spain

The outcome of Sunday's elections in Catalonia could have direct impacts on the political stability of Spain, as the government of socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez depends on the parliamentary support of the region's two largest pro-independence parties (JxCat and ERC).

ERC has already said that the results and possible post-election agreements do not call into question the commitments made in Madrid. Puigdemont, on the other hand, has threatened to withdraw support for Sánchez if the socialists accept the votes of the Popular Party (PP, Spanish right) to make a regional executive led by independents unfeasible, as happened last year in the Barcelona city council.

Leading the Spanish government since 2018, the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) of Pedro Sánchez granted pardons to the separatists convicted for the 2017 self-determination attempt, changed the penal code to end the crime of sedition for which others were accused and has now proposed an amnesty that is about to be definitively approved and from which Puigdemont will benefit.

These measures were negotiated with ERC - which has made all of Sánchez's governments viable since 2018 - and, in the case of the amnesty, also with JxCat, on which the PSOE also came to depend last year to remain in power.

Independence (almost) out of the campaign

The pro-independence parties have been losing ground in successive elections since 2017 and the issue of separation from Spain has changed in the speeches and proposals of JxCat and ERC, the two forces that have been at the head of the Generalitat.

ERC has clearly abandoned the "unilateral path" to independence and has opted for dialogue and negotiation with the Spanish central government, claiming as its achievements the pardons or the amnesty. It now wants to negotiate the terms for a self-determination referendum, one of the major banners with which it presented itself in these elections.

JxCat has always criticized "the dialogue table" that ERC opened with Madrid, but ended up negotiating an amnesty with Sánchez last year. Puigdemont no longer talks about declaring independence unilaterally and did not present in these elections a proposal for a concrete action plan or a timetable for the objective of separation from Spain. The JxCat discourse is that it is the only force that makes Madrid tremble and asks the voters for more power to pressure and negotiate with the central government, starting with a referendum.

What do the Catalans want?

The most recent poll by the Center for Opinion Studies, a public body in the region, released in March, revealed that 30% of respondents believe that Catalonia should be independent, that 31% want to maintain the current autonomous status and that 23% would like Spain to evolve into a federation. Of those who want independence, only 9% defended the option of a unilateral declaration.

What seems to be more consensual is the desire for a referendum on self-determination, legal and recognized by the national authorities: 76% support holding such a consultation.

Other parties and the advance of the extreme right

The Catalan parliament has 135 deputies who are currently distributed among eight parties: Socialist (33), ERC (33), JxCat (32), Vox (11, extreme right), CUP - Candidacy of Popular Unity (9, left-wing independents), Comuns Podemos (8, left), Citizens (6, liberals) and PP (3, right).

If the polls are confirmed, Citizens, as is happening throughout Spain, will disappear from parliament, which will benefit the Popular Party (PP).

On the other hand, all the studies estimate the entry into the Catalan parliament of the Catalan Alliance, a far-right pro-independence party with a discourse very focused on immigration considered xenophobic and even racist. This would make Catalonia an unprecedented case in Spain, as it would have the only parliament with two far-right parties.

Five parties, including the socialist, JxCat and ERC, signed a document this week in which they committed to a "sanitary cordon" to the Catalan Alliance, stating that they will not negotiate with the party or accept the votes of its deputies to reach the government.

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