The latest polls are from last Monday - Spanish law does not allow them in the five days prior to the elections - and they all gave a clear victory to the Socialist Party, but without an absolute majority.

In second place in the polls was Together for Catalonia (JxCat, centre-right), of the former autonomous president Carles Puigdemont, who has been living in Belgium since 2017 to escape Spanish justice, after having led a unilateral declaration of independence. He campaigned for these elections from the south of France, in an area near the border that he calls "Northern Catalonia".

Both Carles Puigdemont and the socialist candidate, Salvador Illa, gained ground in recent weeks, according to the evolution of the polls, to the detriment of the current regional president, Pere Aragonès, of the also pro-independence Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), who appeared in the most recent studies in third place after having started the campaign disputing second place with JxCat.

Catalonia has had nationalist and pro-independence governments for 14 consecutive years, and since 2017 they have resulted from parliamentary "contraptions" because the parties that defend the separation of Spain have ceased to be the most voted.

The unknown this time is whether the dimension of the victory of the Socialist Party prevents a new separatist "contraption" led by Puigdemont or if a new phase opens in Catalonia.

According to the polls, this year, for the first time in more than a decade, there is no guarantee of an absolute pro-independence majority in the Catalan parliament, casting even more uncertainty on the post-election scenarios and the formation of the next regional government (Generalitat).

The scenarios are even more uncertain because of the almost 40% of undecided voters that appeared in one of the polls.

Illa admitted during the campaign an agreement with the ERC, but said that he only refuses to talk to the extreme right; Puigdemont appealed for pro-independence unity and guaranteed that he will never make the socialist president of the Generalitat; Aragonès did not commit to or reject any scenario, including that of not having alliances with any party, which would open the door to a political blockade and the repetition of the elections in the autumn.

The outcome of today's elections in Catalonia could have direct impacts on the political stability of Spain, as the national government of Pedro Sánchez depends on the parliamentary support of both the ERC and JxCat.

The ERC has already said that the results and possible post-election agreements do not call into question the commitments made in Madrid. Puigdemont has threatened to withdraw support for Sánchez if the socialists accept the votes of the Popular Party (PP, Spanish right) to make a regional executive led by pro-independence parties unfeasible, as happened last year in the Barcelona city council.

Leading the Spanish government since 2018, the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) of Pedro Sánchez granted pardons to the separatists convicted of the 2017 self-determination attempt, changed the penal code to end the crime of sedition that others were accused of and has now moved forward with an amnesty, which is in the final phase of approval by parliament and should lead to Puigdemont's return to Catalonia soon.

These measures were negotiated with the ERC - which has made all of Sánchez's governments viable since 2018 - and, in the case of the amnesty, also with JxCat, on which the PSOE also began to depend last year to remain in power.

These agreements now seem to be being capitalised on electorally by the socialists and by Puigdemont, but not by the ERC. But although it is expected to lose, it could be precisely the ERC that today holds the key to power in Catalonia.

See Also: Catalan elections take place on Sunday. Here are the key points (Portuguese version)