The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021, coordinated as usual by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington (United States), estimates that this average increase of almost five years will be recorded in that period, despite the geopolitical, metabolic, and environmental threats that the world faces. The researchers predict that the increase will be greater in countries where life expectancy is lower, according to a statement from IHME, adding that this will contribute "to a convergence between regions". They also consider that the trend is largely driven by public health measures that improve survival rates from cardiovascular disease, covid-19, and a range of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases. According to the study, in Portugal, life expectancy at birth for women will increase from 84.8 years in 2022 to 87.4 in 2050, an increase of 2.6 years, while that of men will increase by 3.4 years (from 79.1 in 2022 to 82.5 in 2050). The diseases that will most affect the "next generation" are non-communicable diseases, such as cardiovascular diseases, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and diabetes, associated with obesity, high blood pressure, unhealthy diet, and smoking. As communicable diseases and maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes lose weight to non-communicable diseases, the indicator for years lived with disability (YLD) becomes more important than years lost (YLL). The expectation is that more people will live longer, but that the number of years lived with health problems will also increase. The estimates are for an average increase of 4.5 years in life expectancy worldwide (from 73.6 years in 2022 to 78.1 in 2050), but healthy life years will only be 2.6 more (increasing from 64.8 to 67.5 years in the same period). "In addition to an increase in overall life expectancy, we found that the disparity in life expectancy between regions will decrease," said Chris Murray, director of IHME, quoted in the statement. This indicates, he added, that "although health inequalities between higher and lower income regions continue to exist, the disparities are narrowing, with the largest increases (in average life expectancy) expected to occur in sub-Saharan Africa." According to Chris Murray, actions to prevent and mitigate behavioral and metabolic risk factors are the most likely to accelerate the reduction in the global burden of disease. These conclusions are based on the results of the Global Burden of Disease, Injury, and Risk Factors Study, also released today in the Lancet, which indicates that "the number of people with health problems and premature death caused by risk factors related to metabolism, such as hypertension, excessive blood sugar level and high body mass index (BMI), increased by 50% since 2000" and up to 2021. Greg Roth, director of the Cardiovascular Health Metrics Program at IHME, quoted in a statement from the American institute, argues that the increased exposure to risk factors such as those mentioned, in addition to a high consumption of sugary drinks and low physical activity, requires that we urgently invest in "interventions focused on obesity and metabolic syndromes". In this associated study, the researchers' calculations took into account 88 risk factors (among environmental and occupational, behavioral, and metabolic) and specific health outcomes in 204 countries and 811 subnational areas, between 1990 and 2021. Several alternative scenarios are also presented to compare potential health outcomes if different public health interventions could eliminate exposure to several key groups of risk factors by 2050. "Globally, the projected effects are strongest in the 'Behavioral and Metabolic Risk Reduction' scenario, with a 13.3% reduction in the disease burden, expressed as the number of healthy life years lost due to health problems and premature death, in 2050 compared to the 'Reference' scenario (the most likely)," says Stein Emil Vollset, from IHME and first author of the study. In relation to the other two scenarios, one focused on safer environments and the other on improving nutrition and childhood vaccination, reductions in the number of healthy years lost compared to the reference are also predicted. "This demonstrates the need for continued progress and resources in these areas and the potential to accelerate development by 2050," says Amanda Smith, assistant director of Forecasting at IHME. Liane Ong, lead researcher at the same institute, says that "the GBD highlights that future trends may be quite different from the past, due to factors such as climate change and the increase in obesity and addiction, but, at the same time, that there are many opportunities to change the trajectory of health in the next generation". According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, the Global Burden of Disease Study is "the largest and most comprehensive effort to quantify health loss globally and over time", with the GBD 2021 including more than "607 billion calculations related to 371 diseases and injuries". Read Also: Life expectancy at birth in the EU rises to 81.5 years in 2023 (Portuguese version)