Less than a month before the European elections, which will take place in the 27 member states of the Union between 06 and 09 June, the official "lead candidate" ('spitzenkandidat') of the European People's Party (EPP), has the conditions to secure a second term.

All the polls point to a new victory for the centre-right family on a European scale, ahead of the European Socialists, whose candidate is Luxembourg's Nicolas Schmit.

However, even if the announced victory of the EPP is confirmed, Von der Leyen will have to secure a (simple) majority in the 'new' European Parliament resulting from the elections, which is expected to be much more fragmented and with a strengthened presence of the far right.

The recent 'opening' shown by the German political leader to a possible collaboration with the European Conservatives and Reformists Group (ECR) -- which includes radical parties such as Vox (Spain), Law and Justice (PiS, Poland), Reconquista (France) and the Brothers of Italy -- has raised the alarm in the centre-left European political families

Socialists, Liberals, Greens and the European Left have already warned that they will not support her re-candidacy if there is any kind of alliance with the radical right, which would make her election unfeasible.

In July 2019, Ursula von der Leyen, even with the support of the three largest groups in the European Parliament emerging from the elections in May of that year -- EPP, Socialists and Liberals -- only managed to win by a margin of nine votes out of 733 cast, receiving 383 votes in favour, 327 against, 22 abstentions and one blank vote.

Ironically, Von der Leyen was only able to be elected thanks to the votes in favour of many deputies from the Polish party PiS (then in power) and Fidesz, of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, something that will certainly not happen again, after, in the last term, the Commission had launched infringement proceedings for violations of the rule of law in both countries.

This year, and if she is appointed by the European Council, Ursula von der Leyen faces a seemingly even more demanding mission to secure the necessary majority in Parliament, i.e. half plus one of the votes cast (361).

She has ruled out any cooperation with the Identity and Democracy (ID) group, which includes, among others, far-right forces such as the Alternative for Germany (AfD), Matteo Salvini's League (Italy), and Marine Le Pen's National Rally (France)

But in a debate between the 'spitzenkandidaten' held at the end of April, she did not, however, reject working with the ERC, replying that "it depends very much on the composition of the Parliament and who is in which group".

Socialists, Liberals and Greens have already announced that they will not vote against the re-election of the German leader if she does not reject outright collaborating with the ERC.

According to the EU Treaties, in the event that the name proposed by the Council for President of the Commission does not obtain the necessary majority in the European Parliament -- something that has never happened before -- the heads of state and government of the 27 have a month to put forward a new candidate.

With the constituent session of the new assembly scheduled for 16 to 19 July, the election of the President of the European Commission is expected to take place at the first plenary session of the European Parliament after the summer recess, between 16 and 19 September.

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