Iran. Raisi's death is an "important loss" and successor should be a conservative
Iranian analyst Ghoncheh Tazmini today considered the death of the President of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, in the helicopter crash that occurred on Sunday, an "important loss", estimating that the successor will continue to belong to the conservative wing.
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The analyst, author of several books on Iranian history and a "visiting fellow" at the London School of Economics' Middle East Centre, also noted how the late president had "unwavering loyalty to the Supreme Leader", 'Ayatollah' Ali Khamenei.
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Given his traits as a "hardworking, straightforward statesman" and "diplomatic, cautious nature", Raisi was "reliable for the regime, to the point of being considered a potential candidate to the Supreme Leader position in a post-Khamenei era". "Therefore, his loss is significant", she underlined to Lusa.
A former director of research at the independent Iranian think tank Ravand Institute for Economic and International Studies, Ghoncheh Tazmini currently lives between Portugal, Canada and the United Kingdom and holds triple nationality: Iranian, Portuguese and Canadian.
Born in Tehran, Tazmini moved with her family to London three years before the Iranian Revolution (1979) that replaced the pro-Western autocratic monarchy led by Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi with a theocratic Islamic republic under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
The author stressed to Lusa that the Iranian Constitution foresees presidential elections within 50 days, with First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber temporarily assuming the president's functions.
Ghoncheh Tazmini also described as "a challenge" the mobilisation of voters in a short period of time, especially in "a regime that faces historically low voter turnout".
This period could serve to "foster a more inclusive political process", namely through the presentation of a moderate presidential candidate, "potentially increasing voter participation", she said.
"However, regional tensions may call for a more conservative leader, leading to an intensification of competition among hardliners", she said.
Iranian rescue teams on Monday recovered the remains of Raisi and the other eight passengers who were on the helicopter that crashed the day before in north-western Iran, the Red Crescent humanitarian organisation announced.
The helicopter, which was also carrying Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, crashed in the Kalibar and Varzaghan area, in the north-western East Azerbaijan province.
The Iranian government confirmed Raisi's death, adding that the disaster will not cause "any disruption in the administration" of the country.
Speaking to Lusa, Ghoncheh Tazmini estimated "unprecedented crowds" at Raisi's funeral ceremonies, which started today, "reflecting his popularity among various segments of the population".
"This outpouring of emotion comes despite claims about his lack of charisma and supposed unpopularity", the author added, indicating that at a regional level, Raisi is likely to be mourned as a "supporter and protector of resistance movements, particularly among the oppressed and the disadvantaged".
Regarding national security, the Guardian Council may impose "stricter vetting of candidates" to ensure the new head of state safeguards the country during "regional turbulence".
On foreign policy, Tazmini noted how the late president reduced the country's isolation and that the same trajectory should be maintained, with a "continued focus on the East and participation in non-Western political and economic blocs".
In the region, Iran is likely to continue to support "non-state local partners, actors and militias". "This strategy, which Iran sees as a form of deterrence based on its perception of a volatile security environment, will continue to be a cornerstone of its military model", she said.
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